Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) Today's temps were up some at -1.367 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Not much of a change compared to the last few days in the forecast, maybe even a notch smaller. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming. Southern CA: Dribbles on Mon (5/1) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). If this materializes, a long-period northwest swell arriving locally next Monday would result. Swell and SW 1 ft in the afternoon. Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level The trend of late has been towards positive readings. Perhaps another small gale to develop in the Western Gulf on Sun PM (2/27) with 45 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas building from 24 flat 43N 157.5W aimed east. BUOY ROUNDUP It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. 2 Finals Swell Coming From the North - Then It's All Down South. Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future. Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours. sgi_ord=Math.random()*10000000000000000; The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.15 degs in June then rising to -0.75 degs in July and fading before holding near -1.0 degs beyond. waves 3 ft in the eveningbecoming 2 ft or less. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. Hawaii County Weather Forecast for April 26, 2023 On Sun AM (4/30) the gale was fading off Oregon with 30 kt northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 42.5N 134.5W aimed east targeting Central CA northward. Swell NW This will result in more peaks to be had throughout the forecast, with size a few notches smaller than what were expected to see over the weekend. The transition to Summer is finally starting. See chart here - link. Easing swells this week. Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. Swell fading Sun (2/27) from 5.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (8.0 ft). Doubtful meaningful weather will result. Swell Direction: 315 & 340 degrees, North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height. On Sat AM (5/6) south winds to be 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 48.75S 132.25W. You can now get all the best MSW features and more on Surfline. Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs. Rain. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. of showers through the day. As southern hemisphere ground swell lingers from the most recent Antarctic swell, NW ground swell is already starting to fill in from that system that, although initially sitting just 1,100 nautical miles from SoCal, will dive south into SoCal as a cut-off low shortly (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data): That low is now diving south and starting to cut off from the jetstream, visible from space this morning on NOAA satellite (image from NOAA GOES): Circled in red we can see that cut-off low, starved of moisture, but with enough being drawn into it to bring rain to SoCal this week. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage in the West to 100W at +1.75 degs connected to a second pocket starting at 94W at at +1.0-1.5 degs reaching east to Ecuador. Thursday the 4th (building day) into Friday the 5th should see NW ground swell from this system that peaked in the Western Pacific yesterday (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data): That got a slight upgrade, arriving a tad earlier (building Thursday), with size chest high Friday the 5th at west facing breaks, angled from 300 with periods 14 seconds. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts and lifting north with seas 31 ft at 45N 176W aimed east. On Mon AM (2/21) the gale started plodding east producing westerly winds at 45 kts over a broad area with a core at 50-55 kts and seas building to 34 ft at 39.75N 152E aimed east. Swell W 5 to National Weather Service Medford, OR. Forecast (2/24) - Temps are to fall to -1.35 degs in May only to rise some to -1.15 degs in the July and holding beyond. No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time. The morning is looking fairly light with just a touch of south wind, followed by a light onshore wind in the afternoon. On Fri AM (4/28) west winds were 40 kts about half way to the dateline with seas 31 ft at 43.5N 162.75E aimed east. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Subsurface Waters Temps //-->, S. Hemi Waking Up Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 . More swell is looking likely out the back too, just nothing as big as what we are going to see this weekend. A few peaks to track down through the workweek, but conditions dont look great then. Gidy - Wikipedia Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. This day is looking like the lightest afternoon all week, so another session later in the day isnt a bad call. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts approaching the dateline with seas 29 ft near at 40N 173E. Wednesday the 10th into Thursday the 11th could see the next southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that should break off Antarctica in a few days (model by FNMOC): Size so far is coming in at chest+ with swell angled from 195 and periods 16 seconds. sgi_tile=1; Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. SHORT- TERM FORECAST During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Please enable JavaScript to access the following map views: All map types that you can enable here: Pacific-Ocean Colour Base Map, Wave Height, Wave Energy, Pacific-Ocean Swell 1 Energy, Swell 2 Energy, Windwave Energy, Pacific-Ocean Precipitation, Wind, Temperature, Pacific-Ocean Cloud Cover. Offshore Waters Forecasts description: Live Map: Washington and Oregon waters Updated: Mon, 01-May-2023 03:25:31 UTC California waters Updated: Mon, 01-May-2023 03:25:48 UTC: NAVTEX Coastal & Offshore Waters Forecasts description: Live Map: Astoria, OR: No tropical systems of interest are forecast. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Summer - Waist to chest high. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. See it Here Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. midnight. TODAY Summer - Chest to head high. 205 PM PDT Fri Apr 28 2023. NW wind 5 ktveering to E after midnight. NW wind 10 to 20 kt. The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. 6 to 7 ft. 2 ft or less. As for rain: Since this low lacks a more predictable jetstream guidance, one has to choose from the widely disparate models to play weather-roulette for timing and amounts. Tuesday the 2nd is expected to run chest to head high at west facing breaks and waist to chest at south facing spots. Slight Anomalies were moderate east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Chance of showers. Saturday the 13th (building day) into Sunday the 14th could see the next southern hemisphere ground swell as models like the idea of another storm breaking off Antarctica in a similar position as the one for the middle of next week (model by FNMOC): Based on 144-hour models, this would bring chest+ sets to south facing breaks, angled from 195 with periods 16 seconds. MetEye forecast wind and wave maps for Sydney waters Local & coastal waters forecasts via clickable map MetEye forecast wind and wave maps Observations Latest weather for the Sydney area Live wind map for New South Wales Latest coastal weather Coastal observations via clickable map Latest weather graphs via clickable map Radar Viewer Victoria Daytime highs though will struggle to reach 60 by Tuesday and Wednesday; in fact, VC may see mid to upper 50s (max) Tuesday and Wednesday. Subscribe to be notified: Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Swell NW in the late morning and afternoon. Otherwise no swell producing weather systems are forecast). In the evening west winds were 45 kts over a solid area just west of North Japan and the South Kuril Islands with 39 ft seas at 41.25N 157.5E aimed east. Famously surfed by Duke Kahanamoku in 1915 these sunshine beaches hold numerous classic set-ups. Detailed Surf Reports, 16-day Surf Forecasts, Surf Photos, Live Winds, Tides and Weather | Swellnet Premium ad-free surfcams, dawn surf reports, forecaster notes, long range surf forecasts. Map overlays available for display: Pacific-Ocean Pressure, Wind, Wind+pressure, Pacific-Ocean Freezing level. The 28 deg isotherm line was stalled at 159W today. But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (4/27) in the Northern Gulf from 30 kts with seas fading from 20 ft at 53.5N 148W aimed east. Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. FORECAST UPDATE: Swell peaks overnight, from roughly midnight to 8am, then tapers gradually through the day. Summer - Chest to head high. Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf) The two have conspired to produce a thick morning marine layer with burn-off not likely at the coast today, with max beach temps struggling to reach the low 60s. In the evening south winds to build to 50 kts with seas 38 ft at 54.75S 137.5W aimed north-northeast. W wind 5 kt. Swell Direction: 296-300 degrees, North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height. and westward 60 nm. TUE NIGHT Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. 8 ft at 10 seconds. showers and steep seas will continue into Tuesday, along with Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. 6 ft. THU SST Anomaly Projections Although this particular swell will fade Saturday the 6th, southern hemi will give south facing spots their turn on the Pacific's wave machine. Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/29): A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru as Kelvin Wave #1 starts fading there. Wind waves 2 ft or lessbecoming 3 to 4 ft. W swell showers early in the morning. Swell NW Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). MON NIGHT N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Fetch fading on Thurs AM (3/3) form 45 kts over the dateline with 38 ft seas at 44.75N 178.5W aimed east. There are signs of warming along the coasts of Chile. afternoon. All NOAA, Coastal Waters Forecast The jet was split east of 155W with the northern branch weak and pushing towards British Columbia but not reaching there yet. Swell is tracking towards Hawaii. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/23 indicates a huge very warm stream of 3+ degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific east to 100W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #1 erupting there into Ecuador. St. George CA out 10 nm Wind The 6 departments of the region of Centre are: Cher (18), Eure-et-Loir (28), Indre (36), Indre-et-Loire (37), Loir-et-Cher (41), Loiret (45) Inhabitants of Centre were 2 440 329 in 1999 and 2 519 567 in 2006. On Sunday (4/30) small swell was hitting North CA associated with a gale previously in the Northern Gulf (see Small North Gulf Gale below) but buried in local chop. Surf along south facing shores will ease today as a south swell that recently peaked moves out. On Thursday (2/24) locally generated windswell was hitting California and Hawaii with remnant Dateline swell fading in Hawaii too. 34.6 N / -76.2 . This run of E swell gets better before it eases, with some flukey winds 1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/30) Weak west anomalies were over the far west KWGA with moderate east anomalies filling the bulk of the KWGA. The South Shore had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with decent form. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days). If these combine with south swells then Malibu and Trestles will fire whereas places such as Rincon require a more northerly swell. Swell NW 5 to 6 ft. A series of southern hemi ground swells are being tracked from the 10th through the 17th. Chance of Temps were rising today at +0.318 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. I wish I could show you, when you are lonely or in darkness, the astonishing light of your own Being! The North Pacific is looking slow in the longer range as expected, so focus is shifted towards the South Pacific now. SW wind 5 ktbacking to S after midnight. The main swells in the water are going to be an overlapping pair of Southern Hemisphere swells, with the new one showing bigger sets late. Mixed swell W Career Opportunities, SYNOPSIS FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS, Surface Currents via High Frequency Radar, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies.
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