Dividing total receiving yards recorded by the number of routes run in a given game, season, career, etc. Among wide receivers (min. It wasn't noticeable in his box score stats as he averaged 92 yards and seven receptions per game. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. What does that mean? For the best in the game, these plays will occasionally pop for huge gains because of their elite speed and run-after-catch ability. An offense is going to try to do whatever it can to get the ball in the hands of its best players, and Thomas fits the bill, as do DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper (Nos. Essentially, based on routes run, Hopkins is almost playing an extra full quarter per game when compared to Jones. [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one. Through thirteen games, Jernigan had just 10 catches for 92 yards, and was a forgotten man behind Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Rueben Randle. Quarterbacks are clearly an essential factor in whether a receiver makes catches and gains yards. Frequently Asked Questions about the NFL and Football, Pro-Football-Reference.com Blog and Articles, Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREE. What Im curious about is the stickiness of each metric. Interestingly, among the three target depths, SOE on intermediate passes appears to be the most stable year to year. Regular-season passes of between 5 and 15 air yards, minimum of 40 targets. Evaluating route types by advanced performance metrics can tell us which routes are the most valuable on a per-target basis, as you can see in the chart below. Robinson's 206 yards gained on corner routes led all receivers (minimum 75 total targets, regardless of route), and a lot of those yards were gained on catches he wasn't expected to make, per NGS. Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. For the first time, these metrics provided a method to isolate and assess individual player performance in a consistent and objective way. Of Thomas' league-leading 299 yards gained on slants, 162 came after the catch. One example from recent memory that comes to mind is Chris Godwin. NFL's Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. And that makes sense, at least to me. Brown's 2019 season was buoyed by his ability to generate yards after catch despite a mediocre Catch Score, and that Cooper Kupp's 'amazing 2021 season did not rely on any one specific ability but was consistently solid across all three components: Here are the top-five seasons in YAC Score since 2017: The top-five Catch Score seasons include who we might expect and then Marvin Jones Jr. Jones had an amazing season for the Lions in 2017, with 1,101 yards and a league-leading 18.0 yards per catch. Stefon Diggs can make the seemingly impossible a reality. Conventional counting stats like receptions and receiving yards provide a way to measure an individual player's ability to catch and move the football, but they only tell part of the story. Well, now we have an answer to those questions and many more. It wasn't his frame but his footwork -- a fake outside, an adjustment upfield and a sharp cut at the top of the route -- that created the space necessary for a 51-yard catch-and-run on that play. Yards per route run is the crown jewel of PFF's advanced stats for wide receivers. best players at key positions this summer, new way to break down some of the game's top weapons. For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. 2022 NFL season's top 10 wide receivers: Justin Jefferson reels in No The assessment to catch and contest works in a similar way to openness. We also hear about touchdowns being random from year to year. Conversely, when looking at it from this lens, it might be time to pump the breaks on NKeal Harry, who only had .83 yards per route run his rookie season. He was historically productive in 2019, in large part because he is excellent in the short game on routes like the cross (a.k.a. We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data. On the other hand, Davante Adams only achieved .96 yards per route run during his rookie year but has blossomed into one of the top dynasty wide receiver assets. The second season in a row that he led the NFL in catches. For Hopkins, 125 of his 257 came after the catch. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? For running backs, YAC Score accounts for about half of the overall score, with Catch Score the second largest component, followed by Open Score. As a result, Stills averaged just 1.29 yards per route run, a pretty unimpressive figure. PFFs Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position. Well, the word useful will mean different things to different people. You don't currently have any notifications. And Julios targets have, on average, been worth less than Thomass in the previous three years. In fantasy football, volume matters much more than efficiency for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. (You can access our route data for wide receivers here, running backs here, and tight ends here, if youre a PFF Elite subscriber.). Below are the 15 unique route types assigned to all route runners, based on their location when the ball is snapped. ranked him first among all wide receivers, creates and maintains separation from a defender, the conversation for best receiver in the league. This route is a little easier to explain, primarily because of one infallible truth: Everyone loves the long ball. There is a 33% increase in the number of WR1/WR2 seasons for a wide receiver that hit 2.00 yards per route run when he also ran a minimum of 250 routes in his rookie year. This site rocks the Classic Responsive Skin for Thesis. But in those games he gained 415 yards, and a 103.8 yard per game average while playing with Chad Henne is pretty incredible. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. 2019 DVOA by Routes: Receivers | Football Outsiders However, he averaged only 6.3 yards target, leaving Johnson with a poor 1.56 yards per route run average. Ginn ran a, Not listed in the bottom five, but relevant based on his reputation: Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf ranked 66th out of 72 receivers by our measure of route versatility. Let's dig into the methodology behind the Route Recognition model: The Next Gen Stats player-tracking system records the x-y location, speed, acceleration, direction and orientation of all 22 players on the field in real time. There arent too many surprises there, but it might be interesting to compare that list to the True Receiving Yards leader board. Our new Route Recognition model leverages this data as inputs into a model that assigns a route type to every eligible receiver on every pass play, including tight ends and running backs. Simply put, no one was more prolific on the go route than Parker. Of his 301 total yards on in routes, 181 were gained after the catch. 101st. Jones averaged 6.0 fewer routes run per game than Hopkins over this stretch. However, hes also somewhat at a detriment for fantasy, in that he runs a low number of routes per game. We also needed to decide when to measure receiver separation. These include route type, depth of route, coverage type (Cover 3, Man 2 and so on), position at snap (wide, slot, tight, backfield), distance from sideline, time after snap, down/distance/yard line and whether or not the play featured play-action. Previous post: Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, Next post: The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics. How can a pass catcher win vs. press? We use pass accuracy data from ESPN's video analysis tracking to adjust both the Catch Score and YAC Score based on the accuracy (high, low, ahead, behind) and intent of the throw. As were using air yards the vertical yards on a pass attempt relative to the line of scrimmage this bucket includes passes behind the line of scrimmage. Super Bowl Champion: Los Angeles Rams. Last season there were 32 wide receivers to run at least 300 routes and draw a target on at least 20 percent of their routes. An interesting note is how close a call it was between Thomas and Ridley for the top spot in the rankings, which should excite Falcons fans about the potential of the former Alabama star. Go to Ratings. Root mean squared error 1.52, r-squared 0.61, mean absolute error 1.09. Green (32.8), Julio Jones (30.7), and Tyreek Hill (24.6). Thats where yards per route run comes into play. Gabriel Davis is a wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills. NOTE: EPA/target is expected points added per target; this measures the value of individual plays in terms of points comparing the down, distance and field position situation at the start of the play relative to the end of the play. We're back to the short routes, which means we're again seeing Thomas at the top of the list. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY . Similar to wide receivers hitting one WR1 season during their careers, there is a significant jump when looking at the total number of WR1/WR2 seasons once you incorporate a minimum of 250 routes run during a wide receivers rookie season. Next Gen Stats maven Mike Band crunches the numbers on seven crucial Super Bowl LVII matchups. Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com For example, Kenny Stills had the most extreme breakdown of any player in the NFL in 2013. Among those top 25 receivers, no receiver was pressed at a higher rate at the line than Thomas (42%), and only one was pressed as much: Stefon Diggs. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? Do Not Sell My Personal Information. But he also led the league with 254 routes run during this time, a per-game increase of 56% compared to his first ten games. Yards per route run simply takes the total receiving yards a player accumulated in a given year and divides that by how many routes on passing plays he actually ran. Regular-season passes of 5 air yards or less. NFL wide receiver rankings 2021. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, AP Offensive Player of the Year: Cooper Kupp, AP Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Rushing Leader: Jonathan Taylor, 1811 Yds, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. The Method. For starters, we could look at the top 10 seasons since 2017 (when our data begins). In those six games, Beasley caught 21 passes for 210 yards. On top of that, hes not playing a high percentage of his teams snaps in any game. Of note, this is one of Patrick Mahomes' superpowers. One is to measure how consistent they are from year to year. Which game is featured at the top of NGS's unlikeliest victory rankings? The most important stat for us in relation to Diggs' post-route productivity: touchdowns. Mike Band uses the Next Gen Stats Draft Model to spotlight six enticing individuals: three on offense and three on defense. Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. We cant say anything about the skill of receivers who fail to earn targets. Receivers like Thomas and Beckham run them well, and to great success. Introducing Receiver Tracking Metrics: How our new NFL stats can better rate pass-catchers, Fantasy football rankings for 2023 season, 10 fantasy football breakout players for 2023, Broncos pick up Jeudy's 5th-year rookie option, Bills ink vet Murray after passing on RBs in draft, Source: Ravens decline LB Queen's 2024 option, LB Barrett's 2-year-old daughter drowns in pool, Bengals' Ossai recovering from offseason surgery, Deion 'ashamed' after only 1 HBCU player drafted, Sources: NFL eyes May 11 to release schedule, Cowboys scout emotional as team drafts his son. (Again, no one doubts Joness talent or skills, and both he and Thomas are consistently in the conversation for best receiver in the league.). All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. Robby went on to score 74% of his total PPR points on routes run from the slot compared to a measly 26% on . Ultimately, the hope is these metrics are used to understand and explain how pass-catchers perform, rather than simply ranking them from best to worst. Tied-65th. For example, YAC Score looks at the tracking data at the time of catch and makes a prediction of how many additional yards a receiver will typically make, based on the locations, directions and speeds of all 22 players. How will Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury factor into Sunday's AFC championship rematch between the Chiefs and Bengals? He was close to unseating Thomas and very well could take the next major step in his third NFL season. Year-over-year r-squared of 0.13, n = 53 player season pairs from 2017-2019. For example, we can see that A.J. Receiving stats on intermediate passes for Michael Thomas and Julio Jones, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play. In other words, only 47.4% of a receivers Yards per Route Run is predictive of his YPRR in Year N+1. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? NGS | NFL Next Gen Stats I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with, While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of. PFF's wide receiver rating is an individualized statistic that plays off the general knowledge of the passer rating statistic. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? Catch Score correlates at 0.38, and YAC Score correlates at 0.35. Which prospects selected in Rounds 2 and 3 project to be steals? NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. Having a high SOE in one season says very little about whether you will have a high SOE in the next.6 Short targets are also the only leaderboard where running backs make an appearance, owing to the dearth of targets they get deeper downfield. You don't currently have any notifications. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. At 6-feet, 226 pounds, Brown wins with size, speed and power. Looking at the 2019 wide receiver draft class, there are several players that fall into these buckets. Since the most interesting routes to analyze are those that earned a target, there are two obvious points in a play to focus on: the moment the ball leaves the QBs hand and the moment the ball arrives at the receivers location. View wide receiver stats for the 2022 NFL season. Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. Brown streak across the field at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland in Week 1 last season, I knew he was going to be a problem for defenses in this league. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. The numbers that propelled Thomas to the top here were his yards, of course, but also his efficiency. Did Pats make Mac Jones happy? We can immediately glean insights. The other two weird names on the list are cut from different clothes than Jones or Blackmon. His opponents surely are, but you can't say they weren't warned: Thomas makes it clear with his Twitter handle that he can't be guarded. Austin missed five games: weeks 4 and 5 against Denver and Washington, and then weeks 8 through ten against the Lions, Vikings, and Saints. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? Can Nick Sirianni successfully match wits with Andy Reid? Given the array of all 22 players' positions, directions and speeds, the model estimates the probability of a completion. Perhaps even Simpsons paradox caveats. A receiver can win with inside leverage against an outside corner who is trying to keep him from going deep, leaving the defender in the dust as he runs across the field at a shallow depth. His 207 yards gained on post routes ranked sixth in the league, and he was one of only two receivers to break 200 yards on less than 10 receptions on post routes in 2019 (the other was DeVante Parker, who ranks second in this grouping). When we account for the most impactful context that affects a receivers most important job getting open Thomas is routinely above average in creating that separation. For each, a benchmark is set based on the context and dynamic inner workings of the play. John Bauer is a featured writer at FantasyPros. 1, even though, statistically, hes the most efficient wide receiver in the league on a per-route basis. Future iterations of the model will look to delve deeper into the route tree to account for the nuance of route-running at the pro level. The purpose of the metrics is not solely to rank receivers from best to worst; the goal is to describe and explain how a receiver is -- or isn't -- able to produce yards. CNNs allow us to engage with the spatial nature of our dataset (that is, where each player is on the field in a given play), while LSTM networks allow us to engage with the temporal nature of our dataset (what happens as the play develops over time). Parker went deep plenty in 2019, running 155 go routes and seeing 36 targets on those routes. By running away from the pressing defender, not through him. Again it seems instructive to compare Thomas to Jones. Which QB makes the list? The type of play call matters, too. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. In his second season as a pro -- and first in head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense -- the Cardinals' Christian Kirk ranked as the most versatile route runner of the 2019 season. 2021 Allen 2021 Amendola 2021 Austin 2021 Beasley 2021 Benjamin 2021 Brown 2021 Cobb 2021 Goodwin 2021 Gordon 2021 Green 2021 Hilton 2021 Hogan 2021 Hopkins 2021 Jackson 2021 Jones 2021 Jones 2021 Roberts 2021 Sanders 2021 Sanu 2021 Slater 2021 Stills 2021 Woods 2021 Watkins 2021 Brown 2021 Adams . In his six games before that, though, Aiyuk was one of the most productive wide receivers in the league, generating 2.44 yards per route run and an 86.3 receiving grade. The problem is we would be measuring receiver success accounting for the dynamic context of what is happening on the field. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have become quite proficient at the QB sneak. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. In fact, if we instituted a minimum of, say, 15 receptions on out routes, only DeAndre Hopkins (86.4%) and . The defense is typically willing to allow an offense to throw to wide-open players short, then rally to make a tackle for a short gain. So while wed like more data, we should probably expect players who show the ability to separate above expectation on routes at these depths to continue to do so.7, Best and worst receiver seasons on intermediate passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. I believe this is because PFF includes passing plays called back due to offensive penalties in the number of Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_6').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_6', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], });, four receivers saw fewer than 35% of their teams snaps. If he does not catch the pass, he is debited at minus-0.75. His reception total was also the most in the NFL on go routes (minimum 75 total targets, regardless of route). With NFL+, stay connected throughout the rest of the NFL offseason with special content from Training Camp, Hall of Fame, and more! Keegan Abdoo investigates this strength -- and whether it will give Philadelphia an edge over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. Over the past two seasons, Bell also averages 63.9 snaps per game, or about 11.8 more per game than the next-closest running back (Ezekiel Elliott). The Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept off the free agency market by their squads. In 2017, I developed a concept now commonly called Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). [3]In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. Route data and target data are pretty easy to come by so dividing targets by routes gives us a simple percentage to work with. Ted Ginn Jr., now a member of the Chicago Bears, ranked as our least versatile route runner of 2019 among qualifying wide receivers. I came into this article with the belief that the rate of yards per route run during a wide receivers rookie season was a fairly strong indicator for future success, but I wanted to take a deep dive to really be sure. Follow Nick Shook on Twitter @TheNickShook. On average, wide receivers that hit 2.00 yards per route run and run at least 250 routes in their rookie campaign are 41% more likely to be a WR1 at any time during their career than a wide receiver that hit the 2.00 yards per route run threshold alone. RTMs account for who's throwing the pass in two ways: We adjust the Catch Score and the part of the Open Score that assesses openness at pass arrival based on the quarterback. Where can I find Yards Per Route Run stats? : r/DynastyFF - Reddit You can find me on Twitter @TheBauerClub, and consider subscribing to my podcast, DynastyTheory. the drag). Only Terry McLaurin was as productive in the scoring department on post routes as Diggs (three TDs apiece), which is why the Washington receiver makes the top three in this group. Beasley caught 72% of his targets in 2013; that sounds good, but its not out of line with the catch rate of a lot of other slot receivers. The data set includes all regular-season pass attempts from the last three seasons, excluding spikes and passes from punts and field goal formations. Get used to seeing his name: Thomas is the top-ranked player in half of these categories. 300 routes run). All of Denver, Miami, and Minnesota will have a new quarterback under center, which muddies things here, as does Oakland having a new offensive play-caller (Jon Gruden). Of course, when comparing Stills numbers to Johnsons, one might note that Johnson was playing with EJ Manuel and Thaddeus Lewis while Stills was playing with Drew Brees, which provides some explanation for the drastic differences between the two receivers in yards per target. You can't go wrong with any of these guys when throwing deep over the middle. Receiving stats on short passes for Jarvis Landry, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play, Wide receivers make the bulk of their high-value receptions on passes at intermediate depths (between 5 and 15 air yards). If a completion actually occurs, the quarterback would be credited with all the probability between that prediction and 1.